Communities of Return: Physical and Social Drivers of Human Mobility in Syria
Social Inquiry, working in partnership with the Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme, conducted advanced statistical analysis and modeling based on location level data in conflict-affected Syria to better understand how conducive a location is for people to reside in and return. This is measured by the rate of population restoration of the location (i.e., how close a location’s current population is to that of pre-conflict levels, taking into account those who never left, those who returned, and those still displaced).
The report details which specific physical and social conditions matter most for sustainability of residence overall as well as by regions in the country and the conditions to which people are returning (voluntarily or not). Broadly speaking, residential infrastructure, safety and security, and social cohesion are the main impediments to both reducing displacement and fostering conditions for sustainable residence.
What this implies is that the factors and conditions that compel people to return and, more importantly, stay in a location are often complex and take significant time to address either because interventions are costly and lengthy and furthermore are entwined with security and political dynamics that are at root of conflict and displacement in the first place. Cessation of open conflict and restoration of basic services may compel some return movements (voluntary or not), but their sustainability requires thinking, policy, and intervention that bridge humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding/justice spheres. The findings here may provide a blueprint for where to start. In the meantime, as returns continue, people coming back will likely face protractedly poor and even dangerous conditions.
For more details, please contact: hnap-syria@un.org.